ABUJA — In a candid account of the nation's economic trajectory over the past three years, the Federal Government on Wednesday presented "Nigeria’s Reform Scorecard," detailing the financial gains, painful sacrifices, and structural disasters prevented by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's policy shifts.
Delivering his address at the Ministry of Finance Headquarters in Abuja, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Prof. Taiwo Oyedele, disclosed that the removal of fuel subsidies and the unification of the exchange rate mobilized ₦15.8 trillion in savings for the Federation between June 2023 and December 2025.
Out of the ₦15.8 trillion subsidy savings, ₦5.4 trillion accrued directly to the Federal Government, while ₦10.4 trillion was shared among state and local governments. Additionally, the Federal Government generated ₦3.1 trillion in independent revenue from government-owned entities and ₦11.9 trillion from incremental borrowing, bringing its total incremental resources to ₦20.4 trillion.
Where the Money Went
Addressing public scrutiny over government expenditure, Oyedele explained that the ₦20.4 trillion incremental revenue helped fund ₦30.64 trillion in critical operational and development expenses.
- Wage Adjustments & Welfare: ₦9.39 trillion was spent on minimum wage increases, civil service allowances, and salary reviews.
- External Debt Service: ₦9.37 trillion was allocated to service foreign debt commitments exacerbated by exchange rate adjustments.
- Infrastructure Investment: ₦6.5 trillion was channeled into strategic national infrastructure projects.
"It is instructive that the single largest expenditure line — wage adjustments at ₦9.39 trillion — outstripped the Federal Government's entire savings from subsidy removal," Oyedele stated, adding that the reforms were designed to eradicate entrenched market distortions rather than simply generate state revenue.
The Harms Prevented
Beyond the revenue gains, the Finance Minister highlighted counterfactual projections showing what Nigeria’s economy would look like had the pre-2023 status quo continued:
- State Government Solvency: In May 2023, 27 states could not reliably meet salary obligations. Today, zero states face that failure. Without reforms, an estimated 30 states would have defaulted.
- Foreign Exchange Parallel Premium: The gap between official and parallel FX rates dropped from over 60 percent to under 5 percent. Projections indicated that unaddressed FX distortions would have driven parallel premiums above 150 percent, making foreign currency virtually unavailable through official channels.
- Fuel Prices vs. Availability: While pump prices rose from ₦185 to between ₦1,100 and ₦1,400 per liter, modeling indicates that maintaining the old regime would have pushed black-market petrol prices past ₦3,000 per liter alongside widespread product scarcity.
- Ways and Means Debt: Legacy central bank overdrafts (Ways and Means), which stood at ₦30 trillion, were curtailed rather than doubling to ₦60 trillion.
Macroeconomic Indicators and Unfinished Business
Oyedele shared macroeconomic updates showing signs of stabilization:
- Inflation: Headline inflation slowed down to 15.91 percent in June 2026 from 22.41 percent in May 2023. Food inflation dropped from 24.82 percent to 17.52 percent.
- Foreign Reserves: Gross foreign reserves expanded to $52.5 billion (up from $35 billion in May 2023), with net reserves standing at $34.8 billion.
- Economic Growth: Real GDP growth strengthened to 3.89 percent. Capitalization on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) surged from ₦31 trillion to roughly ₦150 trillion.
- International Credit Standing: S&P Global upgraded Nigeria’s sovereign credit rating to 'B'. The country also exited the FATF grey list and the European Union’s Anti-Money Laundering Deficiency List.
Despite these structural gains, Oyedele acknowledged that household welfare and poverty reduction remain classified as "unfinished business". He emphasized that the next phase of economic administration will focus on translating macroeconomic stability into direct relief through expanded cash transfers, student loans via NELFUND, agricultural supports, and targeted tax exemptions for low-income earners under the Nigeria Tax Act.
