President Bola Ahmed Tinubu may need to urgently look inward. His political grip on the South-West appears to be facing serious pressure, especially in APC-controlled states. The unresolved fallout from the party’s internal electoral processes is creating cracks that could become costly if not addressed quickly.
ONDO: The state appears divided between two major political camps — the Governor’s structure, which feels disadvantaged by the Abuja list, and the camp associated with the Honourable Minister of Interior. A divided APC cannot afford to underestimate a determined opposition.
OYO: APC is already dealing with three strong political tendencies — Adelabu, Teslim Folarin and the party’s candidate structure. Meanwhile, Governor Makinde is projecting the APM, adding another dimension to the contest. Then comes Senator Rilwan Adesoji Akanbi, the force behind SWAGA and a political institution in his own right, whose grievances over how his structure has been treated cannot simply be ignored. With all these interests, how can a divided house comfortably confront a sitting opposition governor determined to produce his successor?
EKITI: The wounds from the last primaries remain largely unhealed. Strong internal grievances persist, with no convincing reconciliation mechanism capable of bringing the different camps together. The danger is allowing yesterday’s primary battles to become tomorrow’s electoral losses.
OGUN: Leadership interests and the perception of political monopoly continue to create internal divisions. APC needs unity, not competing power centres.
LAGOS: The choice of a preferred governorship candidate over other political gladiators, without sufficient consultation with all stakeholders, has the potential to create another fault line. Lagos may be APC’s strongest political fortress, but even fortresses require careful management.
OSUN: The warning here is already loud. The opposition has taken the state, and APC’s presidential performance there has previously exposed the party’s vulnerability. Add an aggrieved Iyiola Omisore and his political structure to the equation, and the situation deserves serious attention.
THE MESSAGE TO PBAT IS SIMPLE: ACT NOW!
The South-West should not be treated as automatic territory. Political loyalty must be managed, stakeholders must be respected, and grievances must be resolved before they become electoral weapons.
Sir, the house is beginning to smell smoke. 🔥
You may still have the opportunity to put out the fire — but waiting until 2027 may be waiting too late.
Secure the HOME FRONT before facing the battlefield. 2027 will not be won by Abuja calculations alone.
